man who has debated both 2012 candidates republican senator john mccain, and then the risk of being the frontrunner with obama's senior advisor david axelrod. plus, polls, ads, and early voting. with republican strategist alex castellanos, and cinderella and congressional correspondent dana bash. i'm candy crowley. this is "state of the union." >>> it would not be debate season if the political world and the campaigns didn't play the expectations game. >> the president is obviously a very eloquent, gifted speaker. he will do just fine. >> the president's campaign manager jim mecina called romney a very skilled debater and in an open memo to interested parties, senior advisor david axelroad just as he was in the primaries, we expect mitt romney to be a prepared, disciplined, and aggressive debater. joining me now is someone who knows a thing or two about expectations and debates, republican senator john mccain. a little trip down memory lane there. >> i think both candidates are well prepared, and understandably, you'll see their sur gats lowering expectations. i don't know how our g

assumptions. mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points. could have to up to 36 points. that is if it does not change. d, ands does get realize if the white college graduates face about the same, it means that met romney would have to get north of 40 point margin of the white voter. let's take a look of where we are now. this is the gold standard. breaks. this shows that obama is leading by 8 points. if you look at the averages, it is a bit high. the averages are running about four points. you are probably up by five points. this is within the averages. it is similar to the pole from the heartland monitor which will talk about later. overall top line, a look at the margin, 91 points. that is basically identical. 7222 among 852 margin. most have been showing this. what this means is that the idea that obama could get 80% of the minority vote is quite logical based on these and other data that looks like what he will get. this shows you the break out for college graduates. , obama is doing a little bit better among white graduate voters than he did in 2008. amon

preparing for his first presidential debate against john mccain. both candidates right now, mitt romney and barack obama, no doubt, very nervous. i'm nervous, just looking at that picture. diane? >> okay, jake. i will see you tonight for the big event. and i want to bring in co-anchor of "good morning america" and anchor of "this week," my co-anchor tonight, george stephanopoulos. such a night after this long road. what are these two men thinking right now? >> reporter: probably exactly the same thing. tonight, don't take the other guy's bait. play your game. but there is more pressure on mitt romney tonight. you look at the polls right now, he's behind nationally, probably behind even more in the battleground statements. he needs a circuit breaker and he probably has to do something that gives people that say right now they're voting for the president, to give him a second look. >> give all of us a viewer's guide to what they are prepped to do. >> reporter: watch for almost every time mitt romney gets a question, he will try to turn it back to president obama's record. and make preside

record, siting where americans declared him the winner over john mccain each time. you make your opponent out to be unbeatable, regardless of what is said, you can declare a victory of sorts. >> how are the candidates getting ready for the weekend? >> reporter: there is going to be a lot of studying going this weekend, mitt romney is going back to boston, actually you might remember he has been getting ready with rob portman, playing the role of president obama and portman took on the task of playing obama in 2008, helped john mccain during that time to prepare for the debates. mitt romney is using john kerry as a stand in, rather obama is using john kerry as a stand in and kerry has practice from his run in 2004. on sunday, obama is going to nevada where he is going to be practicing for the final three days. >> torey dunnan, live in washington, keeping an eye on the debate prep for us. in political news, throwing back a cold one may provide an insight in to how you will vote. the type maybe an indicater of your views. the study published claims republicans are more drawn to sam

thought they had a shot at arizona if senator john mccain had not been on the top of the ticket. there is also a open senate seat in the state of arizona that is now in play. outgoing republican setor jon d lue. cld bturng the republican candidate for senate is congressman jeff flake. he leads democrat challenger richard carmona by only one point in a carmona campaign internal poll. pireicn keessman flake is a boehner's failing house of representatives. he wants to repeal obama care, the affordable care act, he's against same-sex marage, he's against a woman's light to choose, and the icing on the cake, he voted for pl ryan's, at se le cl,or budget that completely guts medicaid and dismantles the social safety net in america. his opponent, former george w. bush surgeon general, richard carma, is taking the opposite approach. >> it's reprehensible to think that the contract that we have oen tgh medicare or social security is going to be cut. that doesn't make any sense. these are not entitlements. these are, in fact, investments. so i think that'thwrong thinto d >> meanwhile, flake is tryi

manage company money with the oversight. a lot of people coming together with big ideas. john mccain, senator from arizona talking to us right here about real ideas. he tells us exactly what is going on as it pertains to how we get the country back in order. plus, very first u.s. ambassador to iraq, a lot of businesses who wanted to jump right in to help rebuild iraq because it can make them a lot of money. how has that come along. ashley: we look forward to it. the cme group, the nymex. let's begin, thank you for joining us at the nyse. look, the initial economic data was pretty miserable, but the market is not really responding. >> clearly nobody's paying attention to the u.s., it is all about china, the additional stimulus and all of that. traders really have found this market to be quite oversold taking the opportunity to ride on the back of good headlines because that is all that is driving us is headlines. make some money. i think they're taking a little bit of money off the table at the end of the day. ashley: are we due for a correction anytime soon? >> you're hearing a lot for people

likely to think of this. >> you know, john mccain and i, we're a couple of mavericks. and gosh darn it, we're going to take that maverick energy right to washington. and we're going to use it to fix this financial crisis. >> reporter: the real al gore was so stiff in his first debate -- >> i will put medicare and social security in a lockbox. >> reporter: -- his staff made him watch this. >> one of the keys to the lockbox would be kept by the president. >> reporter: the real john mccain wandered around the stage when he debated obama. and so did "snl's" mccain. the parodies aren't just funny. they can matter. >> as many people will talk about the "snl" skit on monday as talk about the actual presidential debate. and that's what makes it so powerful. >> reporter: after all, how can the real debate compete with something like this? >> i know the white house. i know the door out to the rose garden doesn't lock unless you pull it. i know the toilet in the lincoln bedroom will run all night unless you jiggle that handle. >> reporter: jonathan karl, abc news, washington. >> all about strateg

that candidates remember like john mccain said bonn from a plumber that question president obama >>> john mccain alluded to joe the plumber and that barack obama would share the wealth >>> that give matt cain a boost in the polls but as matt cain learned even a memorable debate moment carries a candid only so far. the live audience for the first debate expected to be about 60 million people, half the number expected to vote in the election. chip reid cbs news >>> a look of the debate scheduled the first to bed wednesday in denver, on october 11th vice-president biden and paul ryan will lock horns in danville, kentucky, then two more presidential debates and hampstead new york and boca raton florida. a new poll shows proposition 38 that would earmark funds for schools appears to be headed for defeat an l.a. times poll shows 34 percent of voters favored the tax 52% oppose it it will affect most californians the measures wealthy backer has spent $30 million on the campaign. a competing measure supported by gov. brown will raise taxes only on the wealthy doing better, proposition 30

john mccain went on david letterman to ratchet up the fear and further perpetuate that lie. the second phase is iraq. there is some indication and i don't have the conclusions but some of the stands are actually may and i have said may have come in from come from iraq is that right if that may be the case and that's when some tough decisions are going to be they and tough decisions were made weren't they mccain ok so the bush administration knew that the anthrax attacks were an inside job at this point and that the strain could have only come from their bases but they never held a private public press conference apologizing to the american people for promoting such a dangerously false narrative about muslim terrorists being responsible and even worse that saddam hussein was somehow involved so who was responsible well for years up to. the anthrax attacks the f.b.i.'s main suspect was steven hatfill a member of the government that helped develop a biological weapons facility at fort dietrich maryland but instead of pursuing a criminal investigation based on actual evidence agains

being too emotional about politics. four years ago, john mccain ood tsuteo ca tser obama an arab. here's his instantaneous, instinctive reaction. take a look. >> i have read about him and he's not -- he's a -- he's an ar. he's not -- >> no, ma'am. >> no? >> no, ma'am, no, ma'am. he's a decent, family man, citizen that i just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues. that's what this campaign is all ab ea that's called honor. it's called honor. we're not seeing a lot of that. we're not seeing any of that. >> i haven't seen that on either side in this campaign. >> john mccain is a genuine guy. disagree with him, agree with him, whatever, it's called the reblic par useto believe in that. >> put it more crudely, there's some crap i won't eat. i'm not going to go along with what i see as is an ethnic campaign, that shouldn't be part ofhis campaign. i'm not going to go along with what you said. that instinctive no, no, ith grstricasp. i'm not going to do that. >> imagine mitt romney doing that. >> i would like to see every politician do that once in their life. thank you for com

will remember. >> joe the plumber. >> reporter: like john mccain's invitation of an ohio plumber who questioned mr. obama's tax plan four years ago. >> in the third debate, john mccain repeatedly alluded to joe the plumber, and the allegation that barack obama #-r would share the wealth. >> reid: jamieson says that gave mccain a boost in the polls, but as mccain later learned, even a memorable debate moment carries a candidate only so far. the live tv audience for the first obama-romney debate is expected to be about 60 million people. that's roughly half the number expected to vote in the election. the combination of shrinking finances and rising crime is forcing drastic change on camden, new jersey, a small city just across the delaware from philadelphia. tony guida has the details of a reorganization plan that would take veteran cops off the beat permanently. >> reporter: if camden had its own postcards, the picture would look look a lot like this-- police responding to the scene of a crime. with just 77,000 residents and 1500 violent crimes and 48 murders this year alone, camden

be leader. and most recently, john mccain in 2008 seemed to moffett on the leadership side before he even got to the debate by suggesting that the debate be postponed so they could stay in washington and work on the bailout project. that made him look unleaderly because he really could not do much about that personally anyway. but he did not also seem to be able to handle multiple problems at once. i think that will be important in this particular year. the two candidates have opposite problems. nobody doubts that obama can relate to the people. that he is likable. that he can balance or do the democratic party. what we are wondering is, where is the leader early part? there is a four year pattern where there is not as much change as we had hoped. and romney is known as a take charge, ceo leader. but the big challenge is showing his democratic and like the rest of us. >> democratic with these little "d." >> yes. especially after the comment he made. challenging for both. >> you can arm wrestle. you are closer to the mic, go ahead. >> one of the issues this year, the legion of fact

. what do you say? >>guest: with all respect to john mccain, that is crazy. if we have learned anything in 11 years since 9/11 we have had one case after another of trying to prop up governments that are islamist states that do not have our interests in common. they are not interested in pursuing the sail path as we are. to try to prop them up, we are thought going to bring these guys an empty we will not gem -- get them to abandon radical views and john mccain could look back at the past nine, ten, 11 years and all of the mistakes we have made. >>neil: always good to see you, sir, from washington, dc. the mug shot that congressman west hopes gives him a better shot. will it? that is ahead. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about that 401(k) you picked up back in the '80s. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like a lot of things, the market has changed, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and your plans probably have too. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, we'll give you personalized recommendations tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 on how to reinvest that old 401(k). tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck tdd#: 1-800

that point* where they are retiring although it did not stop john mccain. how women politically age there was a gap between that generation and a new group coming up. also and nikki haley. she has managed south carolina barry well. the advantage of ethnicity bringing diversity to the republican party one could argue it needs diversity. >> we all looked at one another when bill asked the question. the pipeline is a little thin. susanna marty thence the governor of the mexico that we tend to reelect more governors and members of congress i think that is the pipeline very articulate -- particulate but give her six years and has potential. and elizabeth warren sheet is is elected there are a couple. we just need to get more women elected. research that has been done that says to make any kind of difference you need 25%. part of the culture comes as competition more women have the opportunity. because the women we profile in the book who were still in congress are not running again. the women are giving up hour don't see themselves to compromise. >> for various reasons with nrg being sea

. i don't know what it is. john mccain was always gentle and nice when it came to president obama. i thought he was far too nice i didn't understand it. i didn't understand obama as well either. maybe it didn't register the same way. but if you look at what mitt romney is doing, i think he has to get it. he is a terrific guy, a smart guy. he's a wonderful guy. great family man, mitt. he has to get tougher with respect to president obama. >> lots will depend on these debates. if you look at mitt romney had double digits lost by double digits. got beat in two debates by newt gingrich and rose to the occasion. he only has three chances in this case. he has to come out of the box. there seems to be this fear about taking on the president in a tough way. you think some of this is race? when you were running you were putting your hat in the ring the race card was brought up against you. you spent your entire life helping people of all races in the city of new york. >> that is true. a lot of people came to my defense. i was called a racist, bill clinton was called a racist. i have seen bill

with john mccain. i'm the power man, and then the debate started. gerri: all right. we are showing this in slow motion to really get a sense. >> the way it works, those who extend their hand first is more powerful. in the debates, people come out arm extended before they have -- gerri: because they have been coached. >> exactly. gerri: at the end of the debate, romney gives a closing statement, and it seems like he knows i took this. >> oh, i thought you were going to show it. gerri: we don't have a sound; right? hello? james? >> when you watch that, you'd laugh. he's bouncing up and down, and when you do that, it's to take up space. i thought it was humorous. watch him bounce. as he speaks, he's bouncing. the shoulders up, and now if you watch that in fast forward, it's humorous. this is him saying, hey, i did great, i took this. gerri: i'm proud, confident. romney looks at the president the whole time. >> yes. gerri: having a conversation with the president. the president is looking all over the room, jim lehrer, you name it. >> that's his way of disagreeing when he does that. he just

. >> someone who knew trevor when he was a lawyer for john mccain, agenda was a pretty important job, nothing like being a lawyer for stephen colbert. maybe one day i can say i work for comedy central, too. people will be impressed. i just want to give a brief overview. this is out to a graphic we ran in "time" magazine at the end of july this summer, trying our best at that moment in time to project that where the money would come from and what the differences would be in terms of the various sides. the point we're trying to make, one that there is a real difference in political money strategy that these campaigns are employing this cycle. the obama campaign is heavily reliant on small dollars, individual dollars, regular and money, that is contributions $2500 from individuals. the campaign has total control over it and can spend it as they want. the exception here is a priority u.s.a. which can barely see because of the chairs, which we are saying maybe would make 60 million, earlier they want to make 100 minute and had to pare that back. there just weren't a lot of wealthy liberal

portman will star as president obama. he also did it in john mccain's 2008 campaign. ahead of next week's debates, both sides have been lowering expectations. >> the president is, obviously, a very eloquent, gifted speaker. he'll do just fine. >> mitt romney has an advantage because he's been through 20 debates in the primaries oefrt the last year. >> barack obama is a very effective debater. >> we know governor romney is practicing for months. i think the invasion of normandy took less preparation than he's putting into the debates. >> i'm joined by the president of progress and former obama white house adviser and also with us is robert trainum. nera, you helped with hillary clinton's debate preps and you worked robert with with rick santorum and president bush. let's get to the heart of it, robert. both sides lowering expectations, but realistically how important is this debate for romney "nightly newmitt romney? >> it's very important. this is his second time to make an impression. the first time was during the republican convention. the second time is in a situation where he's

mean, the great thing about president obama and the debates with john mccain, it really wasn't so much what he said. it was the way he held himself compared with the way that senator john mccain held himself, and senator mccain looked increasingly flustered. he looked frustrated with candidate obama. i think that the great thing about president obama is that he does have the capacity to be totally in the moment and to be totally funny. he is funny on his feet. and so, you know, for him to practice what he's going to do in case of a zinger, i think he's got the blessing of being rather spontaneous and the blessing of being up against someone who is incapable of spontaneity, reveals himself in those spontaneous moments like the 47% taped remark to be not a terribly likable person. so i think for the president to practice the way he handles zingers defeats what the president is particularly good at. >> well, actually barack means -- barack means in swahili blessed one, so you got that one right. will president obama challenge romney on the details of his vague tax plan, a tax plan almost

actually be competitive in this race, mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points among the white working class in this election. that's youth turnout doesn't change among minority's despite the shifts in eligible voters. if this does get realize, let's say minority vote share goes up by couple of points, 26% as was in 2008 to 28% in 2012, and again if the white college graduate and minority support stays about the same, it means mitt romney would have to get north of 40-point margin among white working-class voters to actually win the election, to win the popular vote. so let's take look at where we are now based on a reasonable came out. it's the gold standard for polls. a pew research center. no one else -- no offense to anyone else in the room who has april. they really do it right. it's pretty reliable stuff. they give you a lot of interesting demographic breaks tradition as among likely voters that obama is leading now by eight points. if you look at the average of the national polls as a bit high relative to the average. the average has been runnin

the campaign in 2008, at the first debate between john mccain andarack obama, wchashis dat f years ago, the focus was the war. in fact, both wars. >> do you, senator mccain, much has been said about the lessons of vietnam. what d you see as the lessons iraq? >> i tnk the lesf iraq are very clear that you cannot have a failed strategy. thanks to this great general david pa ttr,hey are succeeding and winning in iraq. >> whether we should have gone into the war in the first place. six years ago i stood up and opposed this war. we hadn't finished the job in afghanistan. we hadn't caught bin laden. we hadn't put al qaeda to rest. and as aconsnc i thought that it was going to be a distractio now, senator mccain and president bush had a very different judgment. >> so that was this date, 40 days out from the election in '0and 40 days out from the election in '04. in '04 the campaign was consume e of our wars. 40 days out from the election in '08, in the midst of the financial meltdown the campaign was consumed with both of the wars. now it's 2012 and we're 40 days out from the election thi

senator john mccain in early voting in 2008. many political analysts think that gap is going to be much tighter this time around. >> republicans are enthused, more so than in 2008. there will be motivation among the republicans to vote. we have a romney campaign that is investing in early voting were more so than the john mccain campaign in 2008. >>reporter: they say it is about the enthusiasm gap which the republicans have an edge. >>shepard: is the romney camp doing things different in the way the james holmes campaign did? >>guest: yes, the john mccain had less money. romney campaign has a more targeted approach spending as were time as possible in states where early voting has or is about to start. >> for republicans specifically, that message needs to be crystal clear. that is why governor romney is so specific as he is campaigning. you realize that votes are being cast. >>reporter: before the first debate is held. these are voters that already have made up their mind. >>shepard: there are a lot of people voting early but do the analysts predict what percentage of voting can b

hillary clinton, one on one in the 2008 democratic primary, then three debates against john mccain. it's a different dynamic than to be the frontrunner where four or five people are aiming at you throughout a debate. >> here we are on the eve practically of the first debate and it's supposed to be an economic, domestic policy. >> right. >> and now foreign policy has reared its head. we have first of all mitt romney and "the wall street journal" an op-ed, saying that these developments are not as president obama says, mere bumps in the road. they are major issues that put our security at risk, yet amid this upheaval our country seems to be at the mercy of events rather than shaping them, not moving them in a direction that protects our people or allies. and paul ryan just now on the laura engram radio show, saying this about afghanistan. >> that echos also what john mccain said on "morning joe" today. are they trying to change the skubts to get off -- subject to get off 47% and other missteps and perceived problems in their camp or see a real vulnerability here after benghazi in the way t

his primary debate brett o'donnell. o'donnell also preparing john mccain for his debate against president obama. he tells bill o'reilly what mitt romney will need to do in order to come out on top tonight. listen to this. >> the burden in the debate is on the governor, or am i wrong? >> i think you are absolutely right. while the challenger gets elevated by being on the stage with the president clearly the president is on the mountain top. he won the last set of debates. there has to be a compelling reason for change. governor romney has the burden of proof. >> you prepped john mccain for his debate with barack obama. mccain held his own but didn't bring the debate to the president mccain never brought it to him. this guy doesn't know what he is talking about he is talking in generalities but that didn't get through to the electorate who liked obama and still likes obama. >> that is one of the reasons he has to go on offense. >> we will see tonight. coverage starts at 8:55 eastern time with megan kelly and bret baier. they will be live from denver. >> now test time for the 5@5:3

: indeed, but nonetheless that has never stopped warmonger john mccain. and he gave us this dribble. >> we're leaving and they're making the appropriate adjustments. he's consistently overridden the advice of recommendations of our military leaders, and the chickens are coming home to roost there. >> cenk: wait a minute chickens coming home to roost? are youare you malcolm x? reverend wright? you're saying that we deserved to be attack? he doesn't listen to his commanders, go to general john alan, the top commander in afghanistan and he's incredible about the attacks. watch. >> should americans brace themselves for more attacks? is this going to continue? >> it will. the enemy recognizes this is a vulnerableage. iraq, the signature weapon we hadn't seen before was the i.e.d. we had to adjust to that. here i think the signature attack that we're beginning to see is going to be the insider attack. >> cenk: you see that, senator mccain, they recognize it as vulnerability, and the commanders on the ground are saying we need to adjust. it's gotten really really bad and it's to the point

5 points over john mccain. 50%, 45%. a case could be made that mitt romney is doing better than john mccain did. but that might be misleading. the presidential race is going to come down to just a handful of states ohio and florida being the most important governor romney plus win in both places that's why today's polling news is causing controversy. talking points has said from the very beginning that the debates this year will be the deciding factor one week from tonight in denver, colorado, the president will meet the governor at :00 p.m. eastern time. no question and all the polls show this that most americans are not happy with president obama's leadership, especially on the economy. many of the folks don't trust mitt romney. however, if the governor can do what ronald reagan did in 1980, that is keep the incumbent president on the defense during the debates, then the polls will surely change. that's not an easy thing to do because the debate formats allow the candidates to say pretty much whatever they want to sacht the moderator next week jim lair is not going to control